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DM CHURN™ · INTELLIGENCE MANDATE P3 · PART OF DM AXIS INTELLIGENCE™

Retention Intelligence Policy

Your Company · —
SEGMENT
● Devoted
CALIBRATED TO
Gao et al. (2023) · JAMS
GENERATED
April 16, 2026
n = 13,761 customers · 48 months · CC BY 4.0 · DOI: 10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
SECTION 01

Executive Summary

CALIBRATED
01
Churn Exposure
At CX = 5/10, your empirical monthly churn rate is 2.8%. Calibrated to P3 JAMS empirical model.
02
Lock-in Strategy
Your segment is Devoted. Lock-in effectiveness at CX = 5: FADING. Do NOT apply lock-in. These are your most valuable customers. Contractual mechan...
03
Competitive Position
Your CX of 5 vs. competitor's 6 places you at: SLIGHT LAG. Competitor advantage is driving switch consideration. Urgent...
Evidence Authority: All projections calibrated to Gao et al. (2023), JAMS Vol. 51 (334–371). n = 13,761 · 48 months · Telecom. CC BY 4.0.
SECTION 02

Customer Segment Analysis

●
Devoted
CX = 5/10 · Depth: medium

Do NOT apply lock-in. These are your most valuable customers. Contractual mechanisms backfire 2.6–9.7× at your CX level. Let the relationship carry retention.

◆
Indifferent
■
Rational
▲
Addictive
●
Devoted
YOUR SEGMENT
EVIDENCE
Four-segment classification derived from CX score × engagement depth interaction. Each segment has a distinct lock-in response curve. Misapplied lock-in in Devoted segment triggers 9.7× churn elevation.
P3.03 · Gao et al. (2023) · JAMS Vol.51 · Table 3 + Appendix B · DOI: 10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
SECTION 03

Churn Rate Diagnostic

YOUR MONTHLY CHURN
2.8%
ANNUAL REVENUE AT RISK
—
CX POINT VALUE
—
+1pt CX saved/yr
EVIDENCE
Exponential decay function a·e^(b·cx) with a=49.03, b=−0.575, fitted to 656,208 customer-month observations. Moving from CX 5→6 delivers a larger absolute churn reduction than any other single-point improvement.
P3.01 · Gao et al. (2023) · JAMS Vol.51 · Table 2, Fig. 2 · DOI: 10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
SECTION 04

Lock-in Strategy

LOCK-IN EFFECTIVENESS AT CX = 7
FADING
Research-validated threshold
RECOMMENDATION
REMOVE CONTRACTS
IMPLEMENTATION GUIDANCE

At your CX level and segment, binding contracts increase churn 2.6–9.7×. Immediately audit renewal policies and eliminate exit barriers.

EVIDENCE
Lock-in mechanisms (bundling and contracts) show statistically significant effectiveness below CX = 5 and zero measurable effect above CX = 7. Devoted segment backfire effect is 2.6–9.7× documented across 13,761 customers.
P3.02 · Gao et al. (2023) · JAMS Vol.51 · Table 4 · DOI: 10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
SECTION 05

Competitive Position

YOUR CX
5/10
COMPETITOR CX
6/10
STATUS
SLIGHT LAG

Competitor advantage is driving switch consideration. Urgent CX focus required.

If your competitor improves 1 CX point, your churn exposure increases to approximately 3.4% per month.

EVIDENCE
Competitive CX differential is a statistically significant predictor of switching probability. A 1-point competitor gain materially increases churn independent of your own CX level.
P3.05 · Gao et al. (2023) · JAMS Vol.51 · Table 5 · DOI: 10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
SECTION 06

Implementation Roadmap

TIMELINE
—
BUDGET
—
CAPACITY
—
Remove exit barriers
Month 1

Audit cancellation flows for friction. Research confirms backfire at CX ≥ 5 — friction at exit increases churn, not reduces it.

CX improvement program
Month 1–2

Structured VOC program targeting the critical 5→7 CX band. This is the steepest ROI zone on the empirical churn curve.

Cross-sell expansion
Month 2–4

At 30% multi-product penetration, you have cross-sell upside. Research confirms spillover CX improves primary retention. Target shallow-engagement customers first.

Competitive CX tracking
Ongoing

Your competitive gap is thin (-1.0 pts). Implement quarterly CX benchmarking vs. primary competitor to maintain early warning.

Intellectual Honesty: This roadmap is calibrated to Gao et al. (2023) telecom data. Transferability to your industry is directionally valid. Findings represent averages across 13,761 customers — individual operator results will vary. This policy is a starting framework, not a guarantee.
SECTION 07

Evidence & Provenance

Research Study
Gao, de Haan, Melero-Polo & Sese (2023)
Journal
Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Vol. 51
DOI
10.1007/s11747-022-00898-z
License
CC BY 4.0 — Open Access
Dataset
13,761 telecom customers | 656,208 obs.
Duration
48 months longitudinal
Methodology Note: This policy is derived exclusively from the primary empirical findings of Gao et al. (2023). No synthetic data, interpolated values, or unvalidated extrapolations have been used. Coefficients applied: exponential decay (a=49.03, b=−0.575) from Equation 1. Lock-in interaction terms from Table 4. Competitive gap coefficients from Table 5. Cross-product spillover from Table 6.
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Segment analysis, churn diagnostic, lock-in strategy, competitive position, and your implementation roadmap — all calibrated to your inputs.

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